SOIENOE AND THE FUTURE
In preceding (previous) units, we have examined briefly some of the characteristice, methods, effects and problems of present day science.①At this stage it may be worth considering a few of the ways②in which it may develop in the near future, 1. e. the next decade or so.
科学与未来
我们在前几讲中已概要地研究了现代科学研究的一些特点、方法、所起的作用和存在的问题。现在，也许值得来探讨一下：不久将来，即今后十年左右，科学在若干方面可能发展的前景如何。
To begin with, we can expect applied science to produce a vast (huge, enormous) increase in entirely new synthetic products of all kinds. These will range from light-weight, high-strength materials for use in the many specialized branches of engineering,③to drugs and chemicals with a greatly-increased selectivity which can be used in medicine and agriculture. However, in this latter case in particular. it may be predicted that the wide-spread application and combination④of new and more complex products will give rise to unexpected inter-reactions or side- effects. For this reason, greatly intensified programmes of research⑤will be required in order to discover and eliminate the harmful results of such combinations.
首先，我们可以预期，应用科学将大量生产出各种崭新的合成产品：从建筑工程需用的各种重量轻、强度大的材料，到医疗和农业上应用的具有岛选择性的药物和化学用品。不过也可以预见，特别是在这后一方面，这些更为复杂的新产品的广泛应用和几种并用，会产生意外的相互作用或副作用。因此，将需要大力加强有计划的研究，以期发现和消除由于同时并用这些产品可能造成的不良后果。
Another point⑥is that the rapid expansion of industrialization throughout the world must inevitably lead to a progressive exhaustion of natural resources. If we wish to counter-balance⑦these losses to some extent，we shall have to follow two main courses of action:⑧(a) much greater efforts will have to be applied (devoted) to conservation, particularly of such items as soil, water, fuels and minerals- (b) more efficient methods of exploitation and utilization, will have to be developed.⑨
其次，世界各国工业化的迅速发展，势必导致自然资源渐趋耗尽。如果我们想使这种耗费有所节制，就必须采取两种主要办法：一、竭力保护自然资源，尤其是土壤、水、燃料以及矿藏这几项；二，必须研究出更有效的开发和利用自然资源的方法。
In the more developed countries，the automatization of industry (automation) will lead to a high degree of efficiency in the production of manufactured goods, and is likely to have far reaching social effects. For instance, workers will need to be more highly trained and more flexible⑩—they will probably have to be capable of changing(shifting) from one skilled job to another—and. they will also have more free time, as they will work fewer hours per day. This in turn will necessitate a considerable expansion and re-orientation?of education. Another result of automation should be to accelerate (speed up) the accumulation of Surplus capital, which could then bd 2m- de available for?the purpose of assisting the emerging countries to Solve some of the problems of underdevelopment. It should, however, be borne in mind that this process?itself might involve a chain of difficulties, in this case of a political nature.?
在比较发达的国家中，工业生产的自动化将使工业品生产达到很高的效率，同时，也对社会产生深远影响。例如，工人将需要受到较高水平的技术培训并具有较强的适应不同工种的能力（他们必须要有从一种技能劳动转换到另一种技能劳动的本领），再如，由于劳动日的缩短，他们将会有更多的业余时间，这又促使教育事业必须大力发展，并重新调整教育体制。工业自动化的另一个结果，必然是加速剩余资金的积累，这种资金可用于帮助新兴国家解决经济不发达的一些问题，不过应当记住：这种帮助本身，很可能引起一系列的麻烦，这里指的是政治性的麻烦。
In. general, the application一or misapplication?一of science and technology in all fields is certain to affect the structure of society as a whole. This will remain, true?whether we are dealing with?the application of psychology to advertising and political propaganda，or engineering?to the mass media of communication, or of medical science to the problems of overpopulation or old age. This could lead to the development?of a special discipline, whose job would be to estimate (evaluate) the social consequences of all major research and development (R and D)?projects before they are put into largescale operation.?It should here be pointed out that one of the most powerful trends in present-day science is for separate branches to converge and form inter-related groups of studies。If this trend, continues, it may in fact lead to the emergence of an entirely new type of scientist, i. e. the multi-disciplinary co-ordinator.
一般说来，科学技术在一切领域的应用（包括应用不当），总的看，都必定影响社会结构，不论是将心理学应用于做广告或进行政治宣传，也不论是将技术应用于新闻、广播、电视等信息传播媒介，或者运用医学科学来解决人口过多或老龄问题，无不如此。同时，还可能导致产生一门新学科，它是任务是：在任何重大基础研究项目和应用研究项目大规模展开之前，对它们产生的社会后果进行预测。应该指出，现代科学研究的强烈倾向之一，就是原来各自分散的学科都纷纷联合起来，结成相互联系的科研团体。如这种倾向继续发展，实际上就可能出现前所未有的新型科学家一一多学科协调者。
As we have previously seen, international co- operation has become greatly intensified in recent years, and this tendency will doubtless become even more strongly marked in the future. It is therefore likely that the scientific efforts?of individual countries will tend to be unified and co-ordinated by supra-national entities, and the more this is done,?the greater the probability that supra-national governments will eventually be set up.
我们从前面所述已经知道，国际合作在近几年已大为加强，无疑，这种趋势在今后将变得更加明显。因此，各国的科研活动也很可能将由某些跨国机构来进行统一协调，而如果这项工作有增无已，则更有可能最终导致成立国际管理机构。
National governments, also, will be brought intocloser and closer contact with science. To quote only one reason，the State will have to provide increasingly large proportion, of the money spent on scientific investigation, it can therefore be expected to play an increasingly important role (part)?in the plannig of R and D programmes. It will also tend to determine one of the fundamental questions affecting science in the future, viz. the percentage of the funds which are made available for basic research, and the percentage allotted to development projects. From another point of view, the cumulative use of science in government?must have the overall effect of?greatly extending the control of the State over the ordinary citizen. All these factors, and many other related considerations,?should stimulate a great deal of re-thinking on this subject, the results of which could bring about(cause) a scientific revolution in politics，or a political revolution in science—or both.
各国政府与科学事业的关系，今后也将日趋密切。这里仅举一个理由就足以说明：既然国家必须为科研提供越来越多的经费，可以预期，对于制订基础研究和应用研究的规划，国家将会有越来越多的发言权。国家还将有权决定事关科学今后发展的一个根本性问题，即决定给基础研究和应用研究项目提供基金的百分比。从另一方面看，科学技术被不断地应用于国家管理，则必然具有全国性的影响，使国家能在更多方面管理公民。所有上述这些因素，以及其它许多有关的考虑，应将促使政府对科学与未来这个问题思考再L其结果，可能引起政治上的科学革命，或科学上的政治革命，或两种革命同时发生。
注释
1. science此处应译为“科学研究”，因为前几讲主要论述了科学研究的特点（如第四讲）、方法（如第三讲）、作用（如第七讲）和存在的问题（如第五讲）。一个词是否译得贴切，主要根据上下文，但有时还要看全文，甚至全书。
2. way多义，根据下文各段内容应译为“方面”，译成“方式”或“道路”不通。
3. engineering工程（学），由于句中讲的是“重量轻、牢度大的材料”，故应理解为“建筑工程”。specialized branches属于engineering，省略无损句义，反使行文简洁。
4.此处指几种产品同时并用。
5. programmes of research字面意思是“研究计划”，实际上应理解为“有计划的研究”，按逻辑应加强的不是计划，而是这方面的研究。
6.字面上是“另一点（或方面）”，但它显然是承接上一段开头的To begin with，故译成“其次”更顺当。
7. counter-balance（V）抗衡（balance平衡），比如有一架天平，右端受重下倾，如往左端加码，则使右端回升。counter-balance these losses意为“使自然资源的消耗减缓（或减少）”，如译成“抵消这些消耗”，不妥，有增加才可说抵消，句中不妨译作“节制消耗”。
8. courses of action相当于methods方法，办法，译成“行动步骤（或准则）”与原意相左。
9. more efficient methods…will have to be developed研究出…方法，develop有“研究，研制”之意。
10. flexible灵活的，可变通的。以此义直接译入句中令人费解，可作具体引申，译成“适应不同工种的能力”。
11.重定方向（或方针），此处可引伸为“调整教育体制”。
12. be made available可用于…，“可用于”本身已包含目的意味，故（for）the purpose of…可略而不译。
13. this process指assisting…，不能译成“过程”，可视为修辞性换词，故译时可重复assisting。
14. of之前可视为省去了difficulties；nature意“性质”。
15.误用，滥用，应用不当；此处or不可译为“或者”，or含有让步意味，意为“即使应用不当”，或译“包括应用不当”，该句主旨是：只要应用科学技术，即使应用不当，都一样会影响社会结构。
16. this和it都可用来指代某一具体事物，this还常用来指代前句中的某一内容甚至整句意思，本句中this指代前句主旨；remain true仍是如此。
17. deal with此处意为“论及，说到”，句中略译。
18.泛指工程技术。
19.建立，产生。
20. research and development（Rand D）在第五讲中已出现过，R指basic research，D指applied research，故不能译成“研究和发展”。
21.意为“实施，开展”，不是“使用”或“运转”。
22. scientific efforts科学家所作的努力，可译为“科研活动”。
23. the more this is done，这样的工作做得越多，this指代上句主要意思。
24. to play an increasingly important role译成“起着越来越重要的作用”并没有错，意思明确；但把它放在全句中，译成“国家在制订基础研究和应用研究的规划中将起到越来越重要的作用”，读来就不够明确了。究竟起什么作用呢？为使读者有一目了然的理解，翻译时作具体化处理是常用的方法之一，舍“形似”而求“神似”，当然，重要的是要“吃透”原文的意思才行。如本句可以译成“…国家将会有越来越多的发言权”。再举个简单的例子，如：It is not correct to speak while one's mouth is full. 一边吃东西一边谈话是不礼貌的。
25.这里指“国家管理”。
26. of前后可视为同位关系，the overall effect全面的影响指全国性的影响，具体即指国家能在更多方面管理公民。control不能译成“控制”。
27. considerations复数时意为“考虑的事/问题”。
（王自杭校注）